NEXT BLACK SWAN DAY?

1987- Black Monday, 1991-Recession,2000- DOT Com bust, 2008- Lehman Crisis,  Next what and when is a question for every one. It is believed that Stock Markets crash once in 60 years. When will be the next crash no one can predict, but one can predict the reason to a certain extent.

This time the reason can be Deutsche Bank: It is believed that this is already bust and due to political and bureaucrat pressure it is kept sailing. Deutsche Bank  has 46$ Trillion dollar worth derivative position and has position 20 times more than German GDP. It is one of the most interconnected banks world over. Already in the FED eye of bad books. Some positive since 2008 crisis is its brought in most of its derivative positions into the exchange traded mechanism which can reduce the counter party risk and spill over effect.

But even with all make up done by the so called bureaucrats and politicians, this will be a too big to fail and will challenge the world economists and traders if fail. It will be more severe than the Lehman crisis and can estimate to be 5-10 times more catastrophic. Many investors are still licking their wounds of the 2008 and the current commodity crash. Banking industry and the Corporate already reeling under huge debt will add spice to the pain if to happen.

We need to watch this carefully as world is now from Globalization is looking at De-Globalization which can destabilize the world economy going forward.

Lets us keep our investments on a tender hook and look at opportunities to shift as and when required.

Wish you all happy networking.